When discussing the odds of obtaining any one hand there are several things that must be considered. Firstly, you must understand that there are several variations of video poker and each type has its own paytables and each subsequently each will require its own strategy. A seasoned player will know and understand what the best pay tables are for each game, where to find them, and how to play them.
In order to get the edge over the house a player needs to play correctly e.g. use the most optimal strategy for each variant of video poker. Any player who selects a game at random and doesn't use a strategy will lose over the long run - its that simple! Serious players understand that it's a game of mathematics and thus when game play is strict the odds are increased.
You must also consider the following items; variation, deviation, volatility and risk of ruin - all mathematical terms for figuring out the possibility of any certain return.
Variance, simply put can be thought of as the streakiness of a particular machine. Games with lower variances will be less streaky meaning that you will have to invest less to avoid going broke. Deviation, is the fluctuation around the average return, a +/- amount around the average.
Volatility is the amount of deviation from the expected return from a particular game - obviously the tougher the odds of hitting the jackpot the higher the volatility will be. Lastly you might wish to consider risk or ruin which is an expression of standard deviations potential result - and thats the possibility that a bankroll will go to zero before it doubles.
Below you will discover odds for some of the more popular video poker games. The tables display the hand that is dealt or held, the payout or amount of coins for that winning hand, the probability, the chance that a hand will occur, the percentage of the total return contribution, and the standard deviation and variance.
Jacks or Better [Full Pay]
| Hand | Payout | Frequency | % Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 800 | 1 in 40,390.55 | 0.002% | 1.98% |
| Straight Flush | 50 | 1 in 9,148.37 | 0.011% | 0.55% |
| Four of a kind | 25 | 1 in 423.27 | 0.236% | 5.91% |
| Full house | 9 | 1 in 86.86 | 1.151% | 10.36% |
| Flush | 6 | 1 in 90.79 | 1.101% | 6.61% |
| Straight | 4 | 1 in 89.05 | 1.123% | 4.49% |
| Three of a kind | 3 | 1 in 13.43 | 7.445% | 22.33% |
| Two pair | 2 | 1 in 7.74 | 12.928% | 25.86% |
| Jacks or better | 1 | 1 in 4.66 | 21.459% | 21.46% |
| Nothing | 0 | 1 in 1.83 | 54.543% | 0.00% |
| Total Return | 99.5439% | |||
| Variance | 19.5148% | |||
| Deviation | 4.4175% | |||
Deuces Wild [Full Pay]
| Hand | Payout | Frequency | % Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 800 | 1 in 45,281 | 0.002% | 1.77% |
| Four Deuces | 200 | 1 in 4,909 | 0.02% | 4.07% |
| Royal w/Deuce | 25 | 1 in 556.8 | 0.18% | 4.49% |
| Five of a Kind | 15 | 1 in 312.34 | 0.32% | 4.80% |
| Straight Flush | 9 | 1 in 242.72 | 0.42% | 3.71% |
| Four of a Kind | 5 | 1 in 15.39 | 6.49% | 32.47% |
| Full House | 3 | 1 in 47.1 | 2.12% | 6.37% |
| Flush | 2 | 1 in 60.3 | 1.65% | 3.32% |
| Straight | 2 | 1 in 17.67 | 5.65% | 11.31% |
| Three of a kind | 1 | 1 in 3.51 | 28.45% | 28.45% |
| Nothing | 0 | 1 in 1.82 | 54.68% | 0.00% |
| Total Return | 100.76% | |||
| Variance | 25.8346% | |||
| Deviation | 5.0828% | |||
Double Bonus [10/7]
| Hand | Payout | Frequency | % Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 800 | 1 in 48,048 | 0.002% | 1.67% |
| Straight Flush | 50 | 1 in 8,841 | 0.011% | 0.57% |
| Four Aces | 160 | 1 in 5,030 | 0.019% | 3.18% |
| Four 2-4 | 80 | 1 in 1,908 | 0.052% | 4.19% |
| Four 5-K | 50 | 1 in 622 | 0.16% | 8.04% |
| Full House | 10 | 1 in 89.37 | 1.12% | 11.19% |
| Flush | 7 | 1 in 66.87 | 1.495% | 10.47% |
| Straight | 5 | 1 in 66.58 | 1.50% | 7.51% |
| Three of a kind | 3 | 1 in 13.85 | 7.23% | 21.66% |
| Two Pair | 1 | 1 in 8.02 | 12.47% | 12.47% |
| Jacks or Better | 1 | 1 in 5.10 | 19.24% | 19.24% |
| Nothing | 0 | 1 in 1.76 | 56.71% | 0.00% |
| Total Return | 100.17% | |||
| Variance | 28.2555% | |||
| Deviation | 5.3156% | |||
The above Risk of Ruin Calculator will let you know what the probability is for being in a particular pay range for a given number of hands over a given amount of time based on a decent rate of about 10 hands per minute or 600 hands per hour.
The calculator is based on maximum wager of 5 coins for every hand played. For example say you took $200 with you to wager on the game Jacks or Better. You were going to play for just 1 hour and bet 5 coins for every hand. You would have about a 1.6% shot at doubling your money in that amount of time, and a 12% shot of going bust in that amount of time.